All About Politics: Monday Night’s Debate

The build-up has already started for the first presidential debate this coming Monday night, Sept. 26. It will start at 9 p.m. at Hofstra College — that’s a nice PR boost for the school on Long Island.

The viewing audience is expected to be 100 million — yes, that’s huuuge. A record, no doubt.

There will be only two candidates onstage. The Libertarian candidate and the Green Party candidate needed to poll at least 15 percent. They didn’t make it for this first debate. Two more debates will follow.

The Hillary Clinton forces are, I’m sure, pleased that the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, will not be sharing the limelight. Younger voters are not crazy about Clinton and some respected polls show that they might vote for Johnson. These are votes the Clinton campaign thought it would surely get. The youngsters’ hero, Bernie Sanders, has been dispatched to college campuses to win them over.

Finishing a strong second to Clinton in the primaries, Sanders is being a good soldier and a loyal Democrat. He is definitely an asset. He just turned 75 years old and has an almost cult-like following among young voters.

Clinton — in private, not in public — is charming, warm, funny and not the least bit cold or robotic. The few occasions I have talked to her have been delightful. She remembers your name and where you are from and takes good-natured jabs, developing a rapport. Unfortunately for her, this does not come through in a public setting or on television.

The famous and ugly put-down in 2008 by then-candidate Barack Obama — “Hillary, you are likable enough” — still hovers over her candidacy. The much talked about “enthusiasm gap” for her needs to be addressed.

During the debate, she has to look and act relaxed, not stiff or uptight. She must come off as not only smart and well-informed but likable.

For Donald Trump, the expectations are very low. Most don’t expect him to do well. Some expect him to be massively uninformed and act like a buffoon — or to be discourteous and coarse. The last thing the general public expects is for him to be gracious. Any overt display of good manners and even a smattering of intelligent conversation might very well surprise and stun the audience.

Trump loves, absolutely loves the attention. He becomes drunk over the adoration. It makes him say unbelievably stupid things. This could cause him to be seen as very unpresidential. There are, believe it or not, undecided voters. They will use this debate and the ones that follow to determine who they will vote for.

The performance of each candidate will shape the course of the campaign for the remaining days, up to Tuesday, Nov. 8. Maybe that’s not fair, but as Walter Cronkite used to say, “That’s the way it is.”

The Keystone State

Pennsylvania is looking very much like the indispensable state for Clinton to carry. Right now, the polls show her seven points up. Its 20 electoral votes are a must for her. She can lose some other big prizes (such as Ohio and even Florida), but she has to keep Pennsylvania. It has gone Democratic in the last six elections. Dukakis lost it in 1988.

Clinton feels that the vote of well-off suburban women is hers. Republican women who are “socially tolerant” or even liberal are repulsed by Trump. Along with a huge turnout by African Americans, the suburban female vote, Clinton hopes, will carry the day.

Wells Fargo and Elizabeth Warren

I just heard a sound bite of the Massachusetts senator giving it to John Stumpf, CEO of Wells Fargo Bank. She told him to resign and wants him to face criminal prosecution. Warren doesn’t fool around. Hillary needs some of her fire.

Political analyst and Georgetowner columnist Mark Plotkin is a contributor to the BBC on American politics and a contributor to TheHill.com. Reach him at markplotkindc@gmail.com.