Larry Hogan: The Unlikely Governor

Nobody – I mean nobody – thought that Larry Hogan, Jr., would be elected governor of Maryland. The national Republican Party didn’t give him a chance and ignored him. But last week he delivered Maryland’s State of the State address.

Just look at the political demographics of the state. Democratic Party registrations lead Republican Party registrations 2 to 1. Nearly two thirds of both chambers of the state legislature are Democrats. The congressional delegation contains seven Democrats and one Republican. And no one can remember or recite the last attorney general or comptroller who was a Republican and got elected statewide.

If that’s not enough, how about these stats? In the 1992 presidential election, Maryland was Bill Clinton’s third-best state by percentage of the vote. In 2000, it was Al Gore’s fourth-best state. In 2004, it was John Kerry’s fifth-best state. In 2008, it was Obama’s sixth-best state. Obama won 62 percent to 36 percent.

So, with this all up against him, why did Hogan win? Perhaps more to the point, why did he even dare to run?

Sen. Jamie Raskin, a proudly liberal state senator from Takoma Park, perceptively analyzed the race by saying that the Democratic candidate, Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, hammered Hogan on all the social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage – but Hogan “never took the bait.” Instead, Hogan’s campaign consisted of one issue: taxes. Overall, Hogan presented himself “not as a right-wing ideologue, but as a modest affable businessman,” Raskin said.

John Kane – a moderate Republican who is also an affable businessman and past chair of the GOP in Maryland – pointed out the disappointing turnout for Brown in heavily Democratic Montgomery County. He also stressed the very effective use of Hogan’s daughter in TV ads. Hogan’s wife Yumi and daughters are Korean Americans. That picture of inclusion struck a positive note in the Free State. Kane calls Hogan “well-measured and pragmatic.” The last Republican presidential candidate who won in Maryland – George W. Bush in 1988 – fits the same description.

According to Raskin, Democrats shouldn’t worry about 2016. They will carry the state easily in the presidential year. Kane says Hogan can get reelected in 2018. Raskin even concedes Hogan “seems like a nice guy.” What does this all mean? Very blue Maryland might be turning purple when it comes to electing a governor.

One final thought: Democrats of a certain age and long memories just might remember that Larry Hogan, Sr., the new governor’s father, was on the House Judiciary Committee. He was one of the first Republicans to call for President Richard Nixon’s resignation.

This might just be a belated thank-you.

Political analyst Mark Plotkin is a contributor to the BBC on American politics and a contributor to TheHill.com.