Landing in Oz: The Last Debate Before Iowa Votes

Remember what Dorothy said to her dog? “Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.”

No, we’re not. We’re in Iowa.

It’s only hours until that singular once-and-once-only American political event, the Iowa caucuses where Iowans gather in each voting precinct, voting together on their preference for who should be their nominee for president.

On Monday, around 7 p.m., Iowa Republicans will head to one of 1,681 precincts around the state (there are some 120,000 Republicans in the state, according to Election Central) and talk about their preferred candidates and express their preference by voting.  The Democrats, too, will gather together in ways too complicated to explain, but which will also given a concrete determination by way of voting.

All this will translate into percentages, hard numbers and so much seer-like media, round-the-clock commentary that it will make you head for an NCIS binge marathon, if you have nothing else to do.

Last Thursday, Jan. 28, the Republican Party held its last debate before the Iowa decision in Des Moines—minus Donald Trump, the leader in the national polls.  (It’s a wonder they didn’t have a empty podium on the stage, but no matter.) Trump, because Fox News decided to keep Megyn Kelly, the Vanity Fair cover girl, on as one of the three moderators, and furthermore, because some network swag had sent out a snarky notice that made fun of Trump, had instead decided to hold a charity rally of his own only a few miles away around the same time, raising money for American veterans. Just before the debate, there was an undercard debate featuring former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, former Senator Rick Santorum and former Governor of Virginia James Gilmore.  (Remember him? Me neither, although he has the lowest poll numbers of any of the remaining Republican candidates).

At one point during the evening, if you were channel switching, you could watch Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio battle it out over who was weakest or strongest on immigration, who said legalization or citizenship, jump to CNN while Trump was introducing his wife at a distance and listen as four reporters in cutouts trying to explaining the tortured machinations surrounding reports of phone chats between Trump and Fox News President Roger Ailes.  Did Trump call once, twice or numerous times?  We shall never know for certain.  Meantime, somewhere in Iowa, Hillary Clinton and the Bern, aka Socialist-Independent Bernie Sanders were also criss-crossing the state and importuning would-be voters.  So far, there have been no rumors that Madame Secretary has offered to have a shot and a beer with anybody.

Is this Oz, or what?

Trump’s announcement and then decision that he would not take part in the debate sucked out all of the air out of political media discussions.  Trump, as is his wont, complained that Kelly and Fox had not treated him fairly, and said that Kelly was a third rate reporter and that he would not call her a bimbo (as he had previously).  

By the time the debate rolled around, the process of turning  the American political process into a circus,  with Trump as P.T. Barnum, was beginning to be realized. As one CNN reporter suggested, quite accurately, that in the beginning there was concern that the businessman-showman-shaman Trump might become too much the politician.  The opposite has happened—the election process, thanks in large part to Trump and the kind of attention paid to him by the media—has become show biz.

The debate, as was noted by just about everyone, was conducted in the shadow of Trump. This might have led to some discussion about Trump’s absence, policies, thinking, behavior or even hair style, but, Kelly aside, the candidates themselves barely noted his absence. Cruz, usually a noticeably humorless man, did start off by taking a lame shot at Trump, saying, “I’m a ‘maniac,’ and everyone on this stage is ‘stupid’, ‘fat’ and ‘ugly,’ and Ben, you’re a ‘terrible surgeon. And now that we’ve gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way . . .”

Nobody laughed. Some people booed.

Other than that everyone behaved pretty much as they did during the first debate.  Kelly produced video selections from Cruz and Rubio speeches in which they appeared to be weak on immigration issues, videos that Rubio and Cruz danced around like, if Fred Astaire, at least as well as you’re average amateur hoofer.  Rubio distinguished himself with an increasing bellicosity that may guarantee that ISIS may never again attack anybody.  In Iowa, in Republican, a notably evangelist state, we had a Rubio who mentioned Jesus and God frequently and with great passion, as if he spent more time in church than he does in the Senate, which may account for his absences on Capitol Hill.  John Kasich once again pointed out how he balanced his state’s budget, the governor of New Jersey once again reminded us that he prosecuted terrorist as a district attorney, and Jeb Bush fought the good fight with Rubio.  For a long time, no one seemed to notice that Carson was even there.

Nothing was different except: Trump was not there.

He was elsewhere, which if you went to CNN, you could clearly see, as he greeted strays from the undercard, Huckabee and Santorum, who had wandered on to the stage for no apparent reason.

Why is all this and Iowa so important? The Iowa Caucuses are where voters will cast the first real votes in the 2016 campaign, that’s why.

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my.