Pennsylvania Is Clinton’s Keystone State

The state that is the most important for Hillary Clinton to carry is Pennsylvania. In a previous column, I wrote about the state of Ohio. In that column, I made the point that when Democrats carry Ohio, they win; when they lose Ohio, they lose. This has been the case in every election since 1964.
In 2016, Ohio might not be a predictor of victory for the Democrats. Rather, it may be just gravy for the Clinton campaign. The magic number is 270 electoral votes. All sorts of calculations are being formulated to reach that number.
It is now thought that Clinton can reach 270 without Ohio and even without Florida. There are 17 other states that have voted for the Democratic nominee in the last six elections, going back to 1992. Florida and Ohio are not in this category.
George W. Bush carried Ohio in 2000 and 2004. Florida has split three times; it has gone for the Democratic nominee three times and for the Republican nominee three times (2000 is still in dispute in some quarters).
Pennsylvania has been a constant. Every time, going back to 1992, the Democratic nominee has carried the Keystone State. The last time the Democratic nominee lost Pennsylvania was in 1988. That nominee was Michael Dukakis.
Pennsylvania has been accurately and vividly described as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between. My very first experience in politics was in the state, working in a governor’s race in 1970. I drove the entire state from York to Potter City. I can attest to that political description.
Clinton will rack up enormous numbers in the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, especially in Philadelphia (up to a 450,000-vote majority). The reason they are confident in the Commonwealth is that she is doing exceedingly well in the well-off Philadelphia suburbs. Romney carried these areas in 2012.
This time, Republican women are repulsed by Trump. One poll has Clinton winning in those well-off suburbs by an astounding 36 points. Trump will win areas usually carried by the Democratic nominee, but it looks as if that will be more than offset by the numbers Clinton will get in the Philadelphia suburbs.
Other reliably Republican states such as Arizona and Georgia — even Utah — are now targets for the Clinton camp. Tuesday night, Nov. 8, above all, watch Pennsylvania.