Mayor’s Race: Is Muriel Bowser a Shoo-In?
• August 6, 2014

Muriel Bowser should be a shoo-in for mayor. The main reason is that she is the Democratic nominee. Democrats are 76 percent of the registered voters of Washington, D.C. Thus, anyone who runs with that banner starts with an enormous advantage. This cannot be repeated enough.

But Bowser’s support is soft, even amongst loyal Democrats. Her Democratic Primary victory was not attributable to overwhelming fervent support but because she became the plausible alternative to the vulnerable and damaged incumbent, Mayor Vincent Gray. Even when you ask voters who voted for her in the Democratic Primary they struggle to muster any enthusiasm for their own vote.

The very best thing that has happened to Bowser’s candidacy is that Carol Schwartz jumped into the race. This is the fifth time she has run for the office. She has been elected to the School Board and the District Council. Her name recognition is high, and there is a good deal of genuine affection for her. But Schwartz cannot win! What she does do is cut into David Catania’s support amongst D.C. Republicans and most of all with Independent voters who are not registered in either party.

The Independent vote is key. There are 80,000 voters registered as Independent. In all previous elections, they were not a factor. But in the 2014 mayoral election, if they come out in force, Catania’s candidacy becomes very viable. Independent voters have not been courted before. In this election, they will be by all the candidates.

Bowser desperately needs a definition. By this, I mean that she needs to give voters a reason to vote for her.

Catania is going after Democrats, even though he is not one of them. You have seen the signs — Democrats for David.

Bowser needs to remind voters that Catania was a Republican. That’s a dirty word in D.C. Catania is running a highly visible, smart campaign, so far. His persona needs to be re-shaped. There are too many stories concerning his temper and arrogance. Will he be able to do a personality transformation or a modified make-over?

The campaign will take twists and turns. I’ll be here to chronicle them in the issues ahead. A race that should not even be close at this early point appears to be taking that shape.

Mark Plotkin is a political analyst and contributor to the BBC on American politics.